Harkness Project Title: Predictive Risk Modeling: Implications for Improving Access, Quality, and Cost-Effectiveness

Mentors: John Billings, J.D., and David Olds, Ph.D.

Placement: Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, New York University

Biography at time of Harkness Fellowship: Geraint Hywel Lewis, M.A., M.Sc., M.B., B.Chir., M.R.C.P., M.F.P.H., a 2007–08 Commonwealth Fund Harkness Fellow in Health Care Policy and Practice, is a public health physician working as an adviser at the Cabinet Office and as a visiting fellow at the King's Fund. Lewis developed and implemented the Virtual Wards project (aimed at avoiding emergency hospital admissions), which won an unprecedented four categories at the Health Service Journal awards and is being adopted across the United Kingdom and internationally. His current interest is in novel applications of predictive risk modeling, such as predicting admissions to nursing homes and forecasting social exclusion. He has published several articles in journals such as the BMJ, The Journal of Physiology, and the Health Service Journal, and has co-authored a postgraduate textbook on public health. Lewis holds a primary medical qualification from Cambridge and a master's degree in public health from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, as well as membership of the Royal College of Physicians of London and of the Faculty of Public Health.

Career Activity Since Fellowship

• Senior Director, Clinical Outcomes & Analytics, Walgreens, 2012-13
• Senior Fellow, The Nuffield Trust, London, 2009
• Visiting Fellow, The Nuffield Trust, London, 2008
• Veterans Health Administration Award for Improving Veteran Care, and Keynote speaker for the annual Field Advisory Committee (FAC) Chair and National Director meeting, Veterans Health Administration, Washington, D.C., 2008

Current Position: Senior Director of Clinical Outcomes and Analytics, Walgreen Co. (Updated January 2012)

E-mail:  geraint.lewis@nuffieldtrust.org.uk

Harkness-Related Publications

Lewis GH, Vaithianathan R, Hockey PM, Hirst G, Bagian JP. “Counter-heroism, Common Knowledge, and Ergonomics: Concepts from Aviation that Could Improve Patient Safety.” Milbank Quarterly 2011; 89(1):4-38.

Lewis GH. “Predictive Modeling in Action: How ‘Virtual Wards’ Help High-Risk Patients Receive Hospital Care at Home.” The Commonwealth Fund, August 2010. 

Lewis GH. “Impactability Models: Identifying the Subgroup of High Risk Patients Most Amenable to Hospital Avoidance Programs.” Milbank Quarterly; 88(2).

 Vaithianathan R, Lewis G. “The NHS as an insurer.” Journal of Health Services Research and Policy, 2010 Jul; 15(3):171-3. Epub 2010 Mar 4.

Vaithianathan R, Lewis, G.  “Operational Independence for the NHS”, BMJ 2008;337:1497.