Our synergistic approach is intended to build on the substantial movement already afoot to improve health system performance. The policies would interact to accelerate and focus that momentum to achieve the goals of better health, better health care experiences, and lower costs.1
The need for action applies not only to the federal government, but also to state and local governments, businesses, and households—all of which are under increasing financial pressure from rapid health spending growth. The overarching goal should be moving the U.S. health system toward a higher level of performance, one marked by access to affordable care for all, improved quality and patient-centeredness, greater accountability for both health outcomes and treatment costs, and enhanced population health. A high performance health system is not only consistent with stability in health care spending, it is essential for it.
To examine the potential of our proposed synergistic policies, The Commonwealth Fund contracted with Actuarial Research Corporation (ARC) to estimate the cumulative impact on health care spending by 2023 if an illustrative set of policies were to take effect in 2014, assuming the policies are enacted in 2013. The analysis examined the net impact on spending by the federal government, state and local governments, private employers, and households as well as total health spending.2
The estimates suggest the policies consistent with the strategic approach could reduce projected health spending by a cumulative $2.004 trillion over the first 10 years (2014–2023). The savings would accrue to the federal government ($1.036 trillion), state and local governments ($242 billion), employers ($189 billion), and households ($537 billion) (Exhibit ES-1).
For the federal government, the analysis indicates net savings well beyond the level necessary to offset the 10-year costs of replacing current Medicare policies that call for steep cuts in payments to physicians under the sustainable growth rate (SGR) formula. By instituting broader Medicare payment reforms and ensuring these spread to Medicaid as well, the pace of delivery system reform would be accelerated without resorting to across-the-board reductions in provider payments and would produce substantial net savings for federal programs. Targeted policies to lower administrative costs for providers could furthermore support growth in clinician incomes.
U.S. households would be the major winners over time from the strategic approach we describe here, with the potential for better care and health outcomes as well as an estimated $537 billion in direct savings over 10 years. These savings result from lower future insurance premium and out-of-pocket costs resulting from more efficient insurance markets serving Medicare beneficiaries, and from slower growth in the underlying costs of care as the delivery system responds to new incentives for enhanced, high-value care and care systems. In the end, reduced health spending by federal, state, and local governments and private employers also would accrue to households, which ultimately bear the burden of health spending through higher taxes, reduced wages, and direct out-of-pocket costs.
It is important to note that, even with these savings, the health sector would continue to grow. This growth would provide resources to innovate and develop new medical breakthroughs, as well as allow us to meet the needs of an aging population (Exhibit ES-2).
Notably, the bulk of the estimated $2 trillion in savings comes from pay-for-value reforms that accelerate delivery system innovation and from lowering insurance-related administrative costs by simplifying and standardizing reporting and other policies (Exhibit ES-3). Administrative simplification savings would largely accrue to providers, freeing up physicians and their staff to spend more time on patient care.
The analysis indicates that such a comprehensive and synergistic approach, with all payers pulling together in the same direction, would stabilize health care spending and bring it more in line with growth of the economy. The percentage of GDP spent on health care by 2023 would be an estimated 19 percent—similar to the 18 percent projected in 2013 (before the policies begin to take effect) and considerably lower than the 21 percent projected under current law.
The growth in Medicare spending per beneficiary would be below GDP growth for most of the decade, with substantial net savings compared with current projections. In contrast with Medicare, however, although private spending per enrollee would slow, it would continue to exceed GDP growth as it has in recent years. If focused policies at the local, state, regional, or national level slowed private per-person spending growth to bring it more in line with economic growth, the estimates indicate that national health expenditures (NHE) as a share of GDP by 2023 would be near the 2013 level.
Spending growth targets and data for assessing change will be instrumental to inform future action. At the state or local market level, it will be particularly important to have reliable information on baseline total spending and trends so that policies can be developed as needed, since patterns would likely vary in different parts of the country. Policies could be adjusted over time to achieve targets by the end of the decade.
To get these results, it will be necessary to act quickly and for major payers to pull together with a sense of urgency. As illustrated in Exhibit ES-1, the net impact of these policies accelerates over time as the health care delivery system and markets respond to new incentives and as the policies spread across the public and private sectors.
The Commonwealth Fund Commission on a High Performance Health System offers this synergistic set of policies as a way forward for federal and state policymakers and private-sector health care leaders confronting escalating health care costs. We also offer criteria to guide national discussions related to the federal deficit and federal health programs. Building on the three pillars of payment reform, high-value choices, and other market reforms, the United States has the potential to accelerate health care innovation while ensuring access for all.
1 D. Berwick, T. Nolan, and J. Whittington, "The Triple Aim: Care, Health, and Cost," Health Affairs, May/June 2008 27(3):759–69.
2 For details regarding data used and modeling assumptions see J. Mays, D. Waldo, R. Socarras et al., Technical Report: Modeling the Impact of Health Care Payment, Financing, and System Reforms (prepared for The Commonwealth Fund by Actuarial Research Corporation, Jan. 2013).
The Commonwealth Fund Commission on a High Performance Health System, Confronting Costs: Stabilizing U.S. Health Spending While Moving Toward a High Performance Health Care System, The Commonwealth Fund, January 2013.