Modeling Emerging Health Reform Proposals for 2016 and 2017

Using its proprietary COMPARE microsimulation model, the RAND investigators will analyze the likely impact of policy changes and alternatives under discussion. The model has been used in the past to project the impact of major U.S. policy changes, including the ACA, for studies commissioned by The Commonwealth Fund and the U.S. Departments of Labor and Health and Human Services, among others. Potential proposals or policy components that could be modeled include: a forthcoming proposal developed by a House GOP task force to repeal and replace the ACA; additional protections for people with high prescription drugs costs; expanded use of health savings accounts; allowing insurers to sell across state lines; and modifications to the tax credits available in the ACA marketplaces.

Findings from this project will inform policymakers, the media, and the public about the enrollment, premium, out-of- pocket spending, and budgetary effects of changes to the ACA. The analyses will contribute important information to the health policy debate in the 2016 election as well as to the new presidential administration.