Using its proprietary COMPARE microsimulation model, the RAND investigators will analyze the likely impact of policy changes and alternatives under discussion. The model has been used in the past to project the impact of major U.S. policy changes, including the ACA, for studies commissioned by The Commonwealth Fund and the U.S. Departments of Labor and Health and Human Services, among others. Potential proposals or policy components that could be modeled include: forthcoming proposals from the House and Senate to repeal and replace the ACA; high-risk pools; expanded use of health savings accounts; and changes to Medicaid. To estimate the effects of Medicaid budget changes and modifications to provider payment rates, RAND may also use their Health Care Payment and Delivery Simulation model (PADSIM).
This modeling effort will inform policymakers, the media, and the public about the enrollment, premium, out of pocket spending, and budgetary effects of changes to the ACA. This analysis will be important to the health policy debate underway and in plans to replace the ACA.