The Role of Chronic Disease Prevalence and Treatment Patterns in the Decline in Health Spending Growth

Growth in U.S. health care spending has decreased in recent years. This project will examine the relative contribution of two factors to the spending slowdown: 1) change in the prevalence and incidence of chronic diseases, which preliminary evidence shows may have declined; and 2) change in treatment patterns and use of services. Using nationally representative household surveys of health care use, spending, and disease prevalence, the research team will investigate whether utilization has declined across all treatment categories—medications, inpatient hospital admissions, physician office visits—or whether treatment has simply been shifting from more-expensive to less-expensive care settings. The findings will help identify for policymakers the levers that could potentially prolong the trend in slower spending growth.