Long-Term Services and Supports: Projections to Support Single-Payer Analyses

The Urban Institute will use its Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM) to model the effects of adding a long-term services and supports (LTSS) benefit to single-payer reform proposals. The team will model estimates of the 2020 and 10-year costs and distributional effects of two to three stylized proposals that would expand greatly expand LTSS access. The project also will juxtapose these projections with estimates of current law spending and describe how total payments might increase and shift across payers. It will describe who is likely to receive new paid services under the plan, distinguishing between those receiving entirely new services and those who increase the total amount of paid services.