Modeling Policy Alternatives to the Affordable Care Act

As the Affordable Care Act enters its fifth year and faces another Supreme Court challenge, lawmakers have offered various alternatives. Some involve modifying the current law, for example, by eliminating the individual or employer mandate, discarding comprehensive benefit requirements, or providing flat tax credits. “Repeal-and-replace” proposals include a plan to offer modest tax credits to help low-income families purchase private coverage and to replace the ACA’s “Cadillac” health plan tax with a limit on the deductibility of employer-provided health insurance. Another plan would let states opt out of the law’s central requirements. Christine Eibner will use RAND’s recently updated microsimulation model to estimate the insurance coverage and budgetary impacts were such changes implemented. Priorities for modeling will depend on the policy environment and the urgency of having informed responses.