How Did the CBO Do in Forecasting the ACA's Impact?

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<p><strong> </strong>Despite the many unknowns surrounding the rollout of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and states’ reactions to the law's reforms, a new analysis finds that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) was "reasonably accurate" in its cost and enrollment projections.</p>
<p>With Commonwealth Fund support, New York University researcher Sherry Glied and colleagues sought to determine how close the CBO's estimates of enrollment in marketplace plans and in the newly expanded Medicaid program were to actual experience. They also looked at the agency’s projections of spending on marketplace plan subsidies and compared the results with projections made by four other forecasters.</p>

<p>Given that the ACA is "unlikely to be the last national health policy reform considered by Congress," Glied finds it reassuring that the CBO was able to provide fairly reliable estimates.</p> Read the brief