State-Level Economic and Employment Effects of Repealing and Replacing the Affordable Care Act, Phase 2

The project team will use the PI+ model (Policy Insight, version 2.0) developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) to estimate the economic and employment effects of repealing elements of the ACA on every state and DC. The project team has extensive experience with REMI’s PI+ model, and has used it successfully in previously published state specific analyses. The strength of the proposed approach is the researchers’ ability to estimate broader macroeconomic impacts of major changes on a state-by-state basis, but unlike the microsimulation models developed by RAND or Urban’s, REMI’s PI+ model cannot conduct an overall simulation of the effects of repeal and replacement proposals. The work will take into account all economic effects of health care proposals including both the fiscal and economic effects of tax cuts. However, it cannot speculate on alternative uses of federal spending outside of the legislation analyzed.

This analysis will provide timely evidence to state and federal policymakers, insurers, researchers, and the media on the effects of various repeal-and-replace proposals, and will inform ongoing discussions around this topic. Because the analyses will be conducted for every state (and DC), they are of interest at national and state levels.